World, Oil market: The oil barrel prospects for the second semester of 2018

Since last July, the cost for a barrel Texas Tea has marched more than 42% higher.

But we knew 2018 was going to be a good year, didn’t we? To be fair, we talked all about the bullish catalysts that were in the pipeline in an oil outlook I penned last September.

It was clear to us that the fundamentals were strengthening and the imbalance was working itself out.

At the time, the EIA had forecast that WTI prices would rise slightly, averaging $49.58 per barrel.

Keep that in the back of your mind as WTI crude looks for its next run to $75 per barrel. Then again, EIA forecasts were made to be revised.

Today, the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook projects that WTI prices will average $65.95 per barrel in 2019, then decline slightly from that price level next year.

Before we start delving into next year’s forecast, however, it’s worth looking at why the second half of 2018 could be very bullish for oil.

Scouring the headlines today, there’s no question that you’ll find a myriad of reasons oil prices are gearing up for a good run.

Perhaps it was the latest presidential caps-lock tirade against Iran. While I’m not buying into the idea that this tweet will spark the Armageddon that the mainstream media believes, it does tell us something important.

 

 

Read more on this analysis here: Energy&Capital.

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